Why The Polls Are Wrong

why we think Obama will win the popular vote, too.
We will poll this week – awaiting the unfolding storm on the East Coast – but we 
want to share why we think the national tracking averages likely underrepresent 
Obama’s vote.  The main issue is cell phones and the changing America that most 
are under-representing.  Our likely voter sample includes 30 percent reached on 
cell-phones from a cell-phone sample conducted in parallel with our random-digit 
phone sample.   Some other surveys have moved to that level and methodology, but 
most have not.  They are missing the new America, and we’re not sure we are 
keeping up either.

In the real America, most Americans are now cell-phone only or cell-phone mostly 
users.  With no one really sure what is the right proportion for the likely 
electorate, everyone has been cautious but that may be the riskier option.

Pay attention to this.  In the last half of 2011, 32 percent of adults were 
cell-phone only according the Center for Disease Control that is the official 
source on these issues; 16 percent were cell phone mostly.  But the proportion 
cell-phone only has jumped about 2.5 points every six months since 2008 – and is 
probably near 37 percent now.   And pay attention to these numbers for the 2011 
adult population:
* More than 40 percent of Hispanic adults are cell phone only (43 percent).
* A disproportionate 37 percent of African Americans are cell only.
* Not surprisingly, almost half of those 18 to 24 years are cell only (49 
percent), but an astonishing 60 percent of those 25 to 29 years old only use 
cell phones.
* But it does not stop there: of those 30 to 34 years, 51 percent are cell only.

You have to ask, what America are the current polls sampling if they are 
overwhelmingly dependent on conventional samples or automated calling with no 
cell phones?  Democracy Corps reached 30 percent by cell; 35 percent were cell 
only or cell mostly, but only 15 percent are cell only, well short of where we 
should be.

Read the full memo at Democracy Corps (http://www.democracycorps.com/In-the-News/cell-phones-why-we-think-obama-will-win-the-popular-vote-too/) 


 The LGBT community leaders who organized the successful Wilton Manors “GET OUT THE VOTE” Bar Crawl last month are overjoyed to bring to you Debbie Wasserman Schultz, U.S. Representative for Florida’s 20th congressional district and the Chair of the National Democratic Committee, for “PART 2” of their effort to encourage citizens to cast their vote in this year’s General Election, slated for November 6, 2012.    

“Drag the Vote”, as it’s called, will be held on Wednesday, October 31st (Halloween day) at Wilton Manors’ City Hall from 12:00 PM (noon) to 1:00 PM. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is scheduled to appear precisely at noon to make her remarks. Also, there will be key National Democratic Party leaders, local candidates and several top-notched female entertainers to join the festivities.

Early Voting for Broward County runs from October 27, 2012 to November 3. 2012.  If you’ve already completed the Voter Registration process, you can now come out early to cast that much needed vote and enjoy the festivities of “Drag the Vote”. Attendees will also be able to meet and hear from officials, obtain voting recommendations from Democratic leaders, and make their voices heard proudly as they elect the President of the United States and other key local candidates. Volunteers from the Obama for America 2012 campaign will also be in attendance  

“We cannot be more honored and excited to host Debbie Wasserman Schultz at this event”, exclaims Michael Albetta, Vice Chair, Campaign Committee, for the Florida Democratic Party. Albetta continues, “This is a frightening time for LGBT Democrats, if President Barak Obama is not elected as our President on November 6th, we can all simply crawl BACK into the same closet we successfully came out of and re-learn how to hide our true selves”!!

We’ve nearly eliminated the Republican’s Vote by Mail advantage.

I have some really exciting news:  we’ve nearly eliminated the Republican’s Vote by Mail advantage. 
Our strategies are working.
FL Dems are eliminating GOP vote by mail advantage 
But there's still a lot of work to do.  We can't turn out voters through the mail, in early vote, or on Election Day without a lot of help. We have less than three weeks to make it happen.
Please pitch in whatever you can afford today.  It is making a huge difference.
Thank you, Scott
Scott Arceneaux
Executive Director Florida Democratic Party
donate    volunteer

Fundraising Reception for School Board Candidate at Large, Franklin Sands

Hon. Bryan Caleka - Hon. Gary Resnick - Hon. Tom Green
Dr. Kimberley Harrell, D.D. - Hon. Dean Trantalis - Robin Bodiford, Esq.
Hon. Ken Evans - Jameer Baptiste - Harve Brosten
Shannon Harmeling - Bishop S.F.M. Mahee - Ben Lap

Cordially Invites You To a Fundraising Reception for
School Board Candidate at Large, Franklin Sands,
an Advocate for LGBT Voice

Thursday, October 18th
5:30 to 7:30 pm

2266 Wilton Drive, Wilton Manors

Franklin Sands Campaign
16170 Saddle Lane, Weston, Florida 33326
Political advertisement paid for and approved by Franklin Sands candidate for School Board Dist 8-Nonpartisan.
The purchase of a ticket for, or a contribution to, this campaign fundraiser is a contribution to the campaign of
Franklin Sands for Broward School Board Dist. 8.

If you can't make it to the event please donate at:

Please RSVP to Please R.S.V.P to: Tovah 305-673-2585 ext 330
or e-mail to: tovah.goldfarb@gmail.com

Political advertisement paid for and approved by Franklin Sands, candidate for School Board District 8, Non-partisan

Florida State Law limits contributions to $500 per individual and/or entity.
The purchase of a ticket for, or a contribution to, this campaign

fundraiser is a contribution to the Campaign of Franklin Sands

In Broward You Can Vote Early Today!

The Broward County Supervisor of Elections Office will offer In-Office Absentee Voting beginning October 10 through October 26. See procedures below:

1. Available at the Supervisor of Elections’ Voting Equipment Center only:   
1501 NW 40th Avenue
Lauderhill, FL 33313

2. Hours are 10:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., Monday through Friday. Does not include weekends.

3. Any eligible registered voter may contact our office at 954-712-1974 or 954-712-1964 to request an In-Office Absentee Voting ballot prior to going to the office.

4. The voter will be provided with a time to arrive at the Voting Equipment Center to vote the ballot.

5. If the voter arrives without an appointment, there will be a wait period.

Broward Absentee Ballot Drop-Off Sites

Absentee Ballot Drop-Off Sites

Broward County, Florida (October 9, 2012) –   With increased voter interest in the “Vote by Mail” option, the Supervisor of Elections has added locations and options for voters to return their voted absentee ballots.  Voters can mail the ballots at a cost of $1.50, or may choose a drop-off process at the Supervisor of Elections facilities located at:

115 S. Andrews Avenue, Rm. 102, Fort Lauderdale
1501 NW 40 Avenue (N. State Rd. 7/441), Lauderhill

Because of the high volume of voters using the drop-off option, the office has added the drop-off sites to include the following locations, dates and times:

Deerfield Beach Courthouse                          October 12, 18, 19          9:00 a.m. -12:00 p.m.
Parkland Municipal Complex                         October 12, 18, 19          2:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Lauderdale by the Sea Town Hall                  October 11, 12, 18, 19    2:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Lighthouse Point City Hall                             October 11, 12, 18, 19    9:00 a.m. -12:00 p.m.
Pembroke Pines City Hall                               October 11, 17, 18          2:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Davie Education Complex                              October 16, 17              10:00 a.m. -  3:00 .pm.

Florida,Vote in your underwear or in nothing at all

The ballot is long. Really long. Because of ballot language explaining 11 proposed constitutional amendments that legislators -- not the voters -- have put on the November 2012 ballot, it may be the longest one that the state has ever seen.
Because of the sheer number of pages that people are being asked to fill out, and the anticipated high turnout in a presidential election year, the lines on Election Day are also going to be long. Really long.
We launched our Let Me Vote project to make voting easier for everyone. We wanted to be sure you knew how easy it is to request an absentee ballot so you can take as much time as you need to review and fill out your ballot from the comfort of your own home.
Let Me Vote features information on how Floridians can be empowered to overcome any barriers to casting their ballots. From tips for beating the lines, to important dates, to key information about what to expect on Election Day, we're making sure that you have the important information you need to be a part of this important election.
Absentee ballots are already being mailed, meaning votes are already being cast in Florida. The deadline to request yours is October 31st.
There is a lot at stake this year -- not only the Presidential and Senatorial Election, but constitutional amendments that could change Florida for generations -- and all voters need to be ready with accurate information when casting their vote. Get prepared. Get empowered.

From  ACLU of Florida

Find Out more info, about, The Florida Ballot Amendments

The North Broward Democratic Club will hear Dr. Alice Levy, League of Women Voters

When:                   Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Time:                     7:30pm

Where:                  Emma Lou Olson Civic Center
                            1801 NE 6th Street
                            Pompano Beach
What:                    Monthly program meeting

Speaker:               Dr. Alice Levy
                            League of Women Voters

Topic:                   November 6 Ballot Amendments

Refreshments will be served.

From “The Informed Voter Education Series” by the League of Women Voters:  “There are 11 amendments on the November 6, 2012 ballot that, if passed, would amend the Florida Constitution.  All were placed on the ballot by the Florida Legislature during the 2011-2012 sessions.  Each ballot amendment requires 60% of the popular vote for passage.”

Because of the sheer number of amendments and the length of their descriptions, voters need to be fully prepared before going to the polls.  The League of Women Voters has studied each amendment and has published a guide to voting on the amendments, as well as providing speakers to present the League’s findings to groups of voters wishing to inform themselves about the issues.  The North Broward Democratic Club is presenting the forum to the community to help inform voters. Our speaker is Dr. Alice Levy, former president of the Broward County League of Women Voters.  Her biography appears below.

Alice White Levy, as the child of a military family traveled extensively and was educated both in the United Statesand abroad.  Upon completing her studies at the Medical College of Virginia, Dr. Levy worked in academic medicine and research.  She has been on staff at numerous institutions including Brown University, Northwest and Michigan Cancer Foundation.  Currently, she owns and directs two medically related businesses in Florida.

Dr. Levy has always maintained a deep commitment to the social needs of the communities she has called home.  She volunteers with several 501(c)(3) organizations,  as well as serving on municipal boards.  A long time board member and past president of the League of Women Voters of Broward County, Dr. Levy remains actively involved in voter education and voter rights.

The meeting is free and open to the public.

Call Joanne Goodwin, 954-783-8232, for more information.

Florida Electoral Map Looking Better

  • FL-Sen (Lean D to Likely D): It's funny how savior candidates work out sometimes: After Rep. Connie Mack unexpectedly bailed on a Senate run, the GOP was left with a field of third-tier hacks—so weak, in fact, that the establishment prevailed on Mack to change his mind (again) and run after all. Only Mack didn't prove to be much better than the existing options, with his weak fundraising and Animal House pedigree. National Republicans have largely given up any hope of beating Dem Sen. Bill Nelson, who's held very comfortable leads in all recent polling.
  • FL-02 (Likely R to Lean R): We're as surprised as anyone to be making this move, especially since we made the reverse change at the end of August. But we were wrong about the DCCC's interest in this race, and now both party committees are spending here. And it all seems sparked by a newly-released D-Trip internal from mid-September that has the contest tied between GOP Rep. Steve Southerland and Democrat Al Lawson. This is still tough territory that's home to a lot of conservative Dems, but FL-02 is now officially interesting.

  • FL-10 (Likely R to Lean R): GOP Rep. Daniel Webster got a lot of help in redistricting, seeing his seat shift from +6 Obama to +5 McCain. But Democrats landed a strong recruit in former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings, who has actually outraised Webster by a healthy margin and has more cash in the bank. Dem-aligned groups (the House Majority PAC, SEIU, and EMILY's List) must think there's a real chance here, since they've spent $600K already, with nary a penny from the GOP. So Republicans either feel supremely confident, or they're taking a major risk here (or perhaps they're about to start shelling out dough). Either way, a new DCCC poll showed Demings behind by 46-41, and Wesbter's response was... non-responsive. An upset is definitely possible here.

  • FL-26 (Tossup to Lean D): GOP Rep. David Rivera is all but doomed. Even though he managed to skate on a series of ethics charges, he apparently couldn't help but keep up his crooked ways and illegally bankrolled a fake candidate in the Democratic primary to harry Joe Garcia. Garcia won the nomination anyway, and now the whole scandal has blown up—and taken Rivera down with it. With a series of polls showing the Democrat with dominant leads, local Republicans are openly casting about for a candidate to take on Garcia in 2014.

To Florida Democrats - A Campaign Song!

We are all counting on President Obama to be re-elected.  But, we must help him get the job done by campaigning furiously for the achievement of a Democratic Party majority in both houses of Congress!

This Youtube video, a song in a humorous, satirical  form, addresses the lack of cooperation by the Republicans in both the Senate and specifically, the House of Representatives.  It is my contribution to this election season!  Please listen and watch, and hopefully, this will be entertaining and encouraging for you during the last month before this extremely important election!

  Here is the link, but I think the fastest way to find it is to do a youtube search for the name of the song,
"Frogs In A Wheelbarrow!"   Please enjoy!

Mike Price
Los Angeles

Romney Campaign Admits Romney Is Changing Positions Just To Win Votes

[T]he Republican, the conservative candidate in the primary, is always going to lean right and come back to the center for the general, the opposite for the Democrat,” Gingrey explained. “That’s all you are seeing here. It is very typical. We strong conservatives understand that. There are a lot of undecideds in this country…we want those votes too. So, this is campaign strategy.” Watch it:

Patrick Murphy Hits Allen West On His Military Disgraceful Disharge

Democratic candidate Patrick Murphy struck back on Tuesday at Rep. Allen West (R-FL), after West ran an ad about Murphy’s arrest in 2003 bar-fight. In response, Murphy went after a key event for West in 2003 — when his military career was ended.
In a race that has possibly featured the most intensely negative ads of the cycle, this one is a doozy.
“You need the facts about Allen West in 2003,” the announcer says, in response to how West’s ad touted his own military service in that year. “West was criminally charged with violating the Uniform Code of Military Justice; found guilty of three counts of aggravated assault; and relieved of his command. The final Army report: West ‘performed illegal acts…merited court martial…faced 11 years in prison.’ Allen West: He just isn’t who he says he is.”
The Murphy campaign confirmed to TPM it is spending about $175,000 to air the ad, starting on Tuesday.
West fired a handgun next to the head of an Iraqi policeman during an interrogation, and after first having the officer beaten. West said this was done in order to stop an impending attack on his unit, but no evidence of such a plan was found based on the policeman’s coerced confession.
The incident did, however, help West gain notoriety with conservative activists, and to launch a political career that ultimately saw him elected to Congress in the 2010 Republican landslide.
The West campaign was clearly angry about the new ad, responding in a statement to reporters.
“What kind of man who has never worn the uniform attacks an honorably discharged combat veteran for acting to protect the lives of his soldiers?” said West campaign manager Tim Edson. “A desperate man and apparently the same kind of man who calls a decorated combat veteran a coward, hides behind his father’s racist attack ads, gets into drunken bar fights, verbally assaults police officers and then uses his family’s connections to get out of trouble. Patrick Murphy is a spoiled brat and a truly terrible person.”

Congressman Ted Deutch Demands Investigation Into GOP Voter Fraud

Blistering letter slams Republican Guv's 'shocking and hypocritical' silence, lack of action after 'supposed search for voter fraud'...
In a scathing letter to Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R), Congressman Ted Deutch (D-FL19) is demanding the Governor "immediately appoint a bipartisan task force" to investigate and take action on the "the large and apparently growing voter fraud scandal engulfing the Republican Party of Florida."  
"Given the explicitly partisan nature of this scandal, assurances must be provided to all Floridians that the investigation into these allegations is thorough and fair," Deutch writes in his letter (posted in full below), before criticizing Scott for his silence, to date, on the matter.
"So far, your inaction in the face of this scandal suggests that you are putting partisanship ahead of the integrity of Florida’s elections," charges the Congressman…
FULL STORY, COMPLETE LETTER: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=9599

Patrick Murphy is Destroying Allen West 52-43

FL-18: Over the weekend, (the Daily Kos Elections staff) were debating amongst themselves whether Allen West's new TV spot attacking Patrick Murphy over a teenage arrest for drunkenness was a desperation move or a coffin-nailer. After all, West had just released a poll showing him up 11 points on his Democratic opponent. But that internal had some issues (namely, a huge Romney lead in a district where he shouldn't have one), and that ad isn't typically the kind you put out if you have a double-digit lead in the polls.
Well, now we have a clearer picture of the race thanks to two new surveys, and West's move looks a lot more like it came from weakness rather than strength. First up is a poll from the Murphy-supporting House Majority PAC, courtesy of Garin-Hart-Yang, that features Murphy legging out to a 52-43 lead over West. Obama's beating Romney as well, 52-45, which is a notably wider edge than his three-point win in 2008, but makes sense in the context of the president's recent surge in the state of Florida.
Perhaps more remarkable is a poll from Kimball Political Consulting, which is a Republican firm that mostly works on Massachusetts races. They also see Murphy in front, albeit by a smaller 49-45 edge, though their presidential toplines match GHY's exactly (52-45). One odd thing about this survey, though—which includes full crosstabs, unlike HMP's—is that young voters strongly favor both Romney and West. That seems unlikely, to say the least. But no matter what, these new sets of numbers are very good news for Murphy.
P.S. The award for How Do You Like Them Apples (3Q fundraising edition) goes to none other than... Patrick Murphy, who just announced raising an eye-popping $1.05 million in the quarter. Murphy didn't provide cash-on-hand numbers, but this takes him to a monster $3.3 million raised for the cycle to date. Running against Allen West has its advantages!