- FL-Sen (Lean D to Likely D): It's funny how savior candidates work out sometimes: After Rep. Connie Mack unexpectedly bailed on a Senate run, the GOP was left with a field of third-tier hacks—so weak, in fact, that the establishment prevailed on Mack to change his mind (again) and run after all. Only Mack didn't prove to be much better than the existing options, with his weak fundraising and Animal House pedigree. National Republicans have largely given up any hope of beating Dem Sen. Bill Nelson, who's held very comfortable leads in all recent polling.
- FL-02 (Likely R to Lean R): We're as surprised as anyone to be making this move, especially since we made the reverse change at the end of August. But we were wrong about the DCCC's interest in this race, and now both party committees are spending here. And it all seems sparked by a newly-released D-Trip internal from mid-September that has the contest tied between GOP Rep. Steve Southerland and Democrat Al Lawson. This is still tough territory that's home to a lot of conservative Dems, but FL-02 is now officially interesting.
- FL-10 (Likely R to Lean R): GOP Rep. Daniel Webster got a lot of help in redistricting, seeing his seat shift from +6 Obama to +5 McCain. But Democrats landed a strong recruit in former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings, who has actually outraised Webster by a healthy margin and has more cash in the bank. Dem-aligned groups (the House Majority PAC, SEIU, and EMILY's List) must think there's a real chance here, since they've spent $600K already, with nary a penny from the GOP. So Republicans either feel supremely confident, or they're taking a major risk here (or perhaps they're about to start shelling out dough). Either way, a new DCCC poll showed Demings behind by 46-41, and Wesbter's response was... non-responsive. An upset is definitely possible here.
- FL-26 (Tossup to Lean D): GOP Rep. David Rivera is all but doomed. Even though he managed to skate on a series of ethics charges, he apparently couldn't help but keep up his crooked ways and illegally bankrolled a fake candidate in the Democratic primary to harry Joe Garcia. Garcia won the nomination anyway, and now the whole scandal has blown up—and taken Rivera down with it. With a series of polls showing the Democrat with dominant leads, local Republicans are openly casting about for a candidate to take on Garcia in 2014.
From Daily Kos Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest
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