Yes, Roy Moore was a historically flawed candidate, and President Trump stressed that point this morning after Republicans’ defeat in Alabama last night. “The reason I originally endorsed Luther Strange … is that I said Roy Moore will not be able to win the general election. I was right!” he tweeted (Of course, that fact didn’t stop Trump from backing Moore when other Republicans ran away after the allegations against the Alabama Republican.)
But if you thought Moore’s flaws – and the allegations against him – were the only reason why Republicans lost in Alabama, you haven’t been paying attention to 2017. The seven major races this year have underscored that Democratic voters are fired up, that Republican ones aren’t and that Trump is unpopular, even in red states.
Then look at Trump’s own numbers in Alabama, according to the exit poll: His approval rating was 48 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove. But more importantly, the intensity was against the president – with 41 percent strongly disapproving, versus 32 percent strongly approving.
And then there was the African-American vote: They made up 29 percent of the electorate (up from 28 percent in 2012 when Barack Obama was the ballot in Alabama), and they broke for Jones by a 96 percent-to-4 percent margin. This is how a wave happens, and the wave heading in 2018 got bigger and bigger during every contest this year – first in Georgia (which Democrats still lost), then in Virginia last month and then Alabama last night.
It took a lot of GOP mistakes for Democrat Doug Jones to get to 50 percent in Alabama. But here’s the thing: He was probably going to get 44 to 45 percent of the vote against a Luther Strange in this environment. Ultimately, what took down Roy Moore was a combination of the allegations against him, plus the surge of Democratic voters. And don’t lose sight of the second part of that equation.
From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann
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