How the coronavirus, may help Trumps Re Election

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The globe's eventual rebound from the coronavirus could help propel the U.S. economy to new heights right around the time of the presidential election, Axios Markets editor Dion Rabouin writes. Why it matters: With President Trump touting the stock market's performance and jobs growth as key accomplishments, that bounce could become an accelerant in the race. What's happening: S&P Global expects the outbreak to "stabilize globally in April 2020, with virtually no new transmissions in May." Most economists predict the world will get back to business as usual by the summer — and make up for lost time with accelerated economic growth in the second half of the year. What we're hearing: "We’re likely to return not just to normal, but above normal because of the U.S.-China trade deal," Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, tells Axios. "Once contagion is under control and stabilized, I think we’ll see a pop in consumer spending and corporate spending." The backdrop: U.S. economic data had been strengthening ahead of the outbreak. Consumer confidence has been holding at historically high levels; and a private payrolls survey released Wednesday showed the highest job growth in five years. Both the National Retail Federation and National Association of Manufacturers tell Axios they expect their industries — two of the economy's laggards in 2019 — to see a return of job growth and investment this year. Between the lines: The bullish expectations are based on the assumption that Trump won't ratchet up tensions with China again or launch a second trade spat with Europe. source Axios.com