Voters, get ready for a frenzy of politics. Florida's presidential primary, critical in determining the major party presidential candidates, is 100 days from Sunday.
"This whole, entire race is going to be amazing," said Republican analyst Myra Adams of Lauderdale-by-the-Sea. The small states of Iowa and New Hampshire play large roles and, for now, get all the national attention until mid-February.
But just weeks later, Florida becomes the "main act" Adams said. By awarding all its delegates to the winner, and none to candidates in second or third place, Florida can catapult a candidate toward the nomination.
"Florida's primary will be brutal, expensive, and consequential," Adams wrote in an analysis for National Review Online. "Furthermore, it will be a harbinger of Florida's decisive role in determining who will become the next president of the United States."
Sunshine State voters may get a slight holiday respite from politics, but then need to brace for an onslaught of candidates and advertising leading up to the March 15 primary. A range of Florida-based strategists from both parties and independent analysts are watching nine people and things during the next 100 days.
"What happens with Donald Trump? Does his support translate into actual votes?" said Ashley Walker, the Fort Lauderdale political strategist who ran President Barack Obama's 2012 re-election effort in Florida.
Right now, it looks like the billionaire real estate investor and Republican front-runner could win Florida, said Adams and Democrat Ron Mills.
His penchant for making statements not backed up with evidence "doesn't matter. Facts don't matter. People just like what he stands for. Make us great again. We need a tough guy. We need John Wayne to lead up," Adams said. "Given that, who can take him down? I keep asking myself over and over and over again."
 |
| Left Ron Mills, Center Commissioner Dean Trantalis, Right Democratic State Committeeman Ken Evans |
Those who discount the power of anti-establishment primary voters in Florida can look to 2010, when Rick Scott defeated then-Attorney General Bill McCollum in the primary for governor, said political consultant Mills, former campaign director of the Florida GLBT Democratic Caucus who was Florida state co-chairman of Howard Dean's 2004 presidential campaign.
Though Trump and his supporters love to tout his standing at the top of the polls among Republicans, that ignores other polling that shows him faring relatively poorly against Clinton in a general election matchup, said Daniel Ruoss of Lauderdale-by-the-Sea, the southern region vice chairman for the Young Republican National Federation. "While your heart and gut says that you want to go with Donald Trump, unfortunately it's your brain that has to prevail," he said.
Rick Wilson, a Florida-based Republican strategist, also doesn't think Trump is a good standard-bearer for the party. "They've got to look for someone and start focusing on the person who is going to be the best candidate to take care of Hillary Clinton, not just the short-term satisfaction of who is going to be able to yell the loudest and put on the best show."
Bush and Rubio
Florida is especially critical for U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush — unless one of them expects to lose and drops out beforehand to avoid humiliation.
"They're going to fight very hard to win Florida," said Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University. "The optics of not winning your own state, that's really hard to overcome. I can't imagine that either one of them is going to give ground here."
Adams said "Rubio and Jeb both have to win Florida, or they are done." Adams and political insiders of both parties said it would be hard for a Floridian who has won office before and touts support from the state to go on after losing the state's primary. It would damage a key selling point for a Florida-based candidate, that he'd have bring a big home-state advantage in the November election, when Florida awards 29 electoral votes, more than 10 percent of the total needed to win the presidency.
Bush entered the race with a huge lead in fundraising and as a favorite of many in the party establishment, but failed to catch fire. He's in fifth place, at 5 percent support among Republicans, in a Quinnipiac University Poll released Wednesday. Rubio is hoping to become the go-to candidate if the outsider candidates fade. He's in a three-way tie for second place, with 17 percent of the vote in the Quinnipiac Poll.
"At this point, Jeb is such a non-factor. Jeb is not even in the conversation. He has kind of disappeared," Adams said. "Rubio has momentum. But his poll numbers are really not going up."
Who gets out
Both parties have already seen a thinning of their candidate fields, and more dropouts are virtually guaranteed before the Florida primary — once hopefuls see how they fare in critical early primary and caucus states of Iowa (Feb. 1), New Hampshire (Feb. 9), Nevada (Feb. 20 Democrats, Feb. 23 Republicans) and South Carolina (Feb. 20 Republicans, Feb. 27 Democrats).
"By the time it gets to us, the field will be weeded out," said Steven Abrams, a county commissioner who was Palm Beach County chairman for Newt Gingrich's unsuccessful 2012 presidential campaign.
"Iowa and New Hampshire are going to knock some candidates out of the race," Ruoss said. "Who gets knocked out? Who ends the charade of running? Right now the excuse for everyone to stay in is there hasn't been a vote, there haven't been any delegates elected, so why should I get out?"
Wilson said the expensive nature of Florida campaigning could lead some lesser candidates who don't see a chance of winning the state to mount only a semblance of an effort in the state, and save their money and attention for other states.
"In Florida, particularly, the field is going to narrow because it's so big and because it's so expensive to run and operate here," Wilson said. "You're going to end up with three of four people in that top tier who are going to be the competitors at the end of the day."
Campaign strategy
Organization is critical. Democrats and Republicans said they'd be watching for the strength of candidates' ground games, which can determine who is able to translate sentiment into action and actually get voters to vote by mail or to a polling place.
"I don't think you can underestimate the organizational aspect of this," Walker said. It's critical, but difficult, to build an organization that can quickly move from states with early nominating contests to states down the line. "If you're more organized, you can get your people there."
Television also plays an important role in Florida, where it's impossible for a candidate to engage in up-close personal campaigning that's the hallmark of the two most prominent early states, Iowa or New Hampshire.
"That town hall and pancake flipping and all that stuff, that might work in a state the size of New Hampshire or in a state like Iowa," Ruoss said. "[Florida is] a state where you need to get on the air."
Debate performances
Candidates typically use the forums to offer up their talking points and rehearsed responses to expected questions.
Still, Wagner said, they matter, especially in primaries. "Those are significant. They have a big effect on the race," he said. "The polls do move based on debate performances, at least in the primary."
Wilson said the Dec. 15 Republican debate could be especially important.
"That's the last thing that will stay in people's minds before the [holiday] lull."
Rick Scott
An endorsement from Scott when the primary gets close could have an impact.
"The governor's endorsement has always been a critical factor," said Abrams, who was a supporter of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the 2008 Republican primary.
When then-Gov. Charlie Crist was popular among Republicans in 2008, he was widely believed to be readying an endorsement of Giuliani. Instead, he delivered a late endorsement to U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona. McCain won the primary, and Giuliani dropped out the next day.
(McCain went on to win the Republican nomination, consider Crist as his vice presidential pick, and ultimately lose the election.)
National security
Events can sometimes overtake the best-laid political plans, especially in an area as unpredictable and emotional as national security. Democrats and Republicans predicted national security will increase in importance as an issue.
"With some of the recent news, foreign relations and national security are going to be more relevant this election cycle," Walker said. "Since George Bush's re-election, they haven't been the prominent, key driving force for the electorate. It was more about economics."
The Democrats
Most of the nation's political oxygen is being consumed by the Republican contest, which has been upended by outsider, non-politician Trump, a part-time Palm Beach resident. Although Hillary Clinton remains the commanding Democratic front-runner — 60 percent in the newest national Quinnipiac poll — she doesn't have the nomination locked up, at least not yet.
Justin Sayfie, a Fort Lauderdale lawyer-lobbyist, publisher of the online political news site Sayfie Review and adviser to Bush when he was governor, said the performance of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont — 30 percent in the Quinnipiac poll — in Iowa or New Hampshire could have an impact in later Democratic contests. "Does Sanders beat her in either or both of those states? And if not, how close does he come?" Sayfie said.
December pause
The pace of the campaigns will quiet as Hanukkah starts and Christmas approaches, though Wilson said there might not be as great a lull as usual. "I don't think we're going to have a complete switch-off."
Wagner advised people to enjoy the holidays. "You're going to see a lot more campaign advertisements and candidates here in Florida in the new year," Wagner said. "The whirlwind of campaigns, campaign advertisements and the focus on the campaign is going to be bigger and bigger as the year wears on ... so enjoy the respite now."
Any pause won't last long. Bush is slated to give an address to the Forum Club of the Palm Beaches on Dec. 28, the first day after the Christmas weekend.
People will be able to catch up after the holidays, Sayfie said, and still have plenty of time to make their decisions. "December is the least important month of the next 100 days. And then January is more important than December. And February is exponentially more important than January."
aman@tribpub.com or 954-356-4550
No comments:
Post a Comment