Did Florida Mean Anything?
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless mattered, maybe a lot.
More than 1.7 million Democratic voters cast ballots in Tuesday's primary, the largest presidential turnout in the state's history, exceeding the previous 1976 high by more than 400,000 votes and more than doubling the 2004 turnout and tripling the 2000 turnout. The winner, Senator Hillary Clinton, amassed more votes than did any previous Democratic contender, including two past southern presidents -- Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.
The voting in Florida mirrored the national demographic composition far more accurately than did events in South Carolina , New Hampshire or Iowa . 31% of the vote was cast by African-Americans (19%) and Hispanics (12%). Unlike in Iowa and New Hampshire (overwhelmingly white) and South Carolina (55% African-American), in Florida a diverse agglomeration of voters melded the final results.
Replicating the results in Nevada , the Clinton campaign scored heavily with Hispanics, garnering an impressive 69% of the vote and nearly offsetting Senator Obama's 73%–25% margin among African-Americans. If results in New York , California and New Jersey match the Florida outcome, Obama will have a difficult time amassing statewide margins, as his share of the white vote has declined since Iowa and New Hampshire . Florida 's white voters favored Clinton by a 53%–23% margin.
On a geographic level, Clinton defeated Obama in every region of the state, with the exception of the heavily conservative northern Florida area. As for the crucible in the general election, the Orlando and Tampa ticket-splitters, Senator Clinton won easily, with a stunning 52%–33% advantage among Florida suburban voters.
There are other demographic trends warranting attention: There was a substantial gender gap -- Clinton won females by 23% and males by a scant 4%; Clinton won white males by 18%. Liberals and moderates strongly favored Clinton , while Obama garnered a 1% advantage with conservatives. Support for Clinton among Catholic (63%) and Jewish (58%) voters even exceeded the statewide percentage.
To be fair, Obama had to overcome several hurdles. The share of voters 18–29, his strongest group, composed less than 10% of the vote, in a state where senior voters compose the most important voting bloc. Second, all three major candidates, including John Edwards, honored the Fowler Family's 4 State Pledge of prohibition on campaigning in the state. Obama has benefited from strong organizational activities in other primaries.
Florida , however, matters. It will soon encompass the third-largest population in the nation, trailing only California and Texas . Moreover, it is a general-election battleground for both parties, unlike California (Democratic), Texas (Republican) and New York (Democratic), the other large states.
As we approach Super Tuesday, the race for the nomination remains competitive. While Clinton is favored in the larger states, Obama will amass a considerable number of delegates in New York and California ; will carry his home state, Illinois ; and is favored to win several caucus states. In a race where clarity was anticipated, even prior to February 5, it now seems likely that the Republicans will coronate a prospective nominee, John McCain, before the Clinton–Obama contest is decided. While the departure of John Edwards renders the prospect of a brokered convention extremely remote, it is likely that the Democratic struggle will be fiercely contested for weeks to come.
Source: NCEC
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