Just wait a few weeks
By Maya Bell Amid the storm that has swept through the National Hurricane Center this month over the future of its deposed director, there has been one thing missing: an honest-to-goodness hurricane.
But Floridians shouldn't expect that to last.
With only two minor tropical storms so far, the 2007 hurricane season has been quiet since it officially began June 1. But the slow start is typical, even for the above-average season that is still expected.
"Just because things are quiet on July 20 doesn't mean the active season won't come true," Jack Beven, a senior hurricane specialist, said Friday. "There have been plenty of active seasons where we didn't have any activity before August.
"Just look at 2004."
That was the year when one tropical storm — Bonnie — and four hurricanes — Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne — smacked the Sunshine State in a six-week span that started Aug. 12. Yet the first named storm didn't pop up until Aug. 1.
On Friday, Beven was keeping an eye on a tropical wave near Puerto Rico, though conditions weren't favorable for its development. But he and other forecasters don't expect those conditions — principally, high wind shear — to endure.
Wind shear, winds that blow in different directions at different altitudes and rip hurricanes apart or inhibit their formation, typically is high in June and July. It begins dropping in August, kicking off the three peak months of hurricane season.
That's a major reason 90 percent of all hurricanes form in August, September and October, according to Chris Landsea, the science and operations officer at the hurricane center. It's also among the reasons tepid activity in June and July is no indication what the rest of the season may hold, he said.
In May, Landsea and other members of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal-outlook team predicted that 13 to 17 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin this year. Of those, they estimate, seven to 10 are likely to grow into hurricanes, with three to five ballooning into major tempests of at least Category 3 strength.
But even if they're wrong—like last year, when unexpected El Nino conditions tamped down hurricane activity — it takes just one storm to make for a terrible season. Case in point: The 1992 hurricane season was below average but nevertheless spawned Hurricane Andrew, which leveled much of south Miami-Dade County.
For now, though, Beven and other meteorologists are happy to be talking about what storms might be lurking on the horizon, rather than the one that has swirled at the hurricane center most of this month.
On Thursday, two weeks after half of the center's staff called for the immediate ouster of their new boss, Bill Proenza, a NOAA assessment team recommended he permanently lose his post. Employees said Proenza's "disruptive" conduct was undermining the center's credibility and the public's faith in its forecasts.
On paid leave since July 9, the veteran National Weather Service administrator had replaced the retiring Max Mayfield in January. Mayfield's longtime deputy, Ed Rappaport, is now acting director.
"We're all happy to have this episode behind us — hopefully," said Ben Nelson, the state meteorologist. "Now everybody can concentrate on the peak of season."
But Floridians shouldn't expect that to last.
With only two minor tropical storms so far, the 2007 hurricane season has been quiet since it officially began June 1. But the slow start is typical, even for the above-average season that is still expected.
"Just because things are quiet on July 20 doesn't mean the active season won't come true," Jack Beven, a senior hurricane specialist, said Friday. "There have been plenty of active seasons where we didn't have any activity before August.
"Just look at 2004."
That was the year when one tropical storm — Bonnie — and four hurricanes — Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne — smacked the Sunshine State in a six-week span that started Aug. 12. Yet the first named storm didn't pop up until Aug. 1.
On Friday, Beven was keeping an eye on a tropical wave near Puerto Rico, though conditions weren't favorable for its development. But he and other forecasters don't expect those conditions — principally, high wind shear — to endure.
Wind shear, winds that blow in different directions at different altitudes and rip hurricanes apart or inhibit their formation, typically is high in June and July. It begins dropping in August, kicking off the three peak months of hurricane season.
That's a major reason 90 percent of all hurricanes form in August, September and October, according to Chris Landsea, the science and operations officer at the hurricane center. It's also among the reasons tepid activity in June and July is no indication what the rest of the season may hold, he said.
In May, Landsea and other members of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal-outlook team predicted that 13 to 17 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin this year. Of those, they estimate, seven to 10 are likely to grow into hurricanes, with three to five ballooning into major tempests of at least Category 3 strength.
But even if they're wrong—like last year, when unexpected El Nino conditions tamped down hurricane activity — it takes just one storm to make for a terrible season. Case in point: The 1992 hurricane season was below average but nevertheless spawned Hurricane Andrew, which leveled much of south Miami-Dade County.
For now, though, Beven and other meteorologists are happy to be talking about what storms might be lurking on the horizon, rather than the one that has swirled at the hurricane center most of this month.
On Thursday, two weeks after half of the center's staff called for the immediate ouster of their new boss, Bill Proenza, a NOAA assessment team recommended he permanently lose his post. Employees said Proenza's "disruptive" conduct was undermining the center's credibility and the public's faith in its forecasts.
On paid leave since July 9, the veteran National Weather Service administrator had replaced the retiring Max Mayfield in January. Mayfield's longtime deputy, Ed Rappaport, is now acting director.
"We're all happy to have this episode behind us — hopefully," said Ben Nelson, the state meteorologist. "Now everybody can concentrate on the peak of season."
By Maya Bell
Maya Bell can be reached at mbell@orlandosentinel.com or at 305-810-5003.
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